The Rationale of Political Assassinations: Context, Logic, Landscape and General Trends, Causes, Facilitators, Consequences, Policy Implications, Coups D'etat, Typologies, Targets, Heads of State

Professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction, this study aims to improve our understanding of the causes and implications of political assassinations by utilizing a comprehensive data set and by employing quantitative analyses. The findings illustrate the trends that characterize the phenomenon and challenge some of the existing conventions about political assassinations and their impact.

This study is guided by the rationale that the logic of political assassinations is different from that of other manifestations of political violence. Hence, it is important to understand the unique factors that may encourage or discourage violent groups or individuals from engaging in political assassinations. Moreover, it seems reasonable to assume that these factors vary among different types of assassinations, because in most cases the characteristics of the targeted individual shape the nature and objectives of the assassination. Indeed, this study establishes that different processes trigger different types of assassinations, and that different types of assassinations generate distinct effects on the political and social arenas.

Although the first two decades after World War II were characterized by a limited number of political assassinations, the number of such attacks has risen dramatically since the early 1970s, reflecting the emergence of new waves of terrorist groups, radical and universal ideologies operating on a global scale, and a growing willingness by oppressive regimes to use assassinations as a tool in their treatment of political opposition. Indeed, while most assassinations against government officials were perpetrated by sub-state violent groups, most assassinations of opposition leaders were initiated by ruling political elites or their proxies. This important observation supports the notion that a growing number of terrorist groups see assassinations as a legitimate and effective tool, and that one of the major obstacles for democratization is the vulnerability of political opposition. The study also finds that in many cases the perpetrators of political assassinations are the most experienced members of their groups, are government proxies, individuals with military training, or those with past service in law enforcement agencies or the military. Finally, this study establishes that, in contrast to some expectations, processes of democratization can sometimes facilitate assassinations under specific conditions rather than impede them.