The Future of Command and Control: Complexity, Networking, and Effects-Based Approaches to Operations - Terrorism, the Post 9-11 World, von Moltke, Clausewitz, Decisionmaking during Apollo 13

Effects-based approaches to operations are simple, even elegant concepts in theory. Yet this idea has, like network-centric approaches to operations, been misunderstood in a variety of ways. The resulting confusion is responsible for a great deal of unnecessary argument and has hindered progress. These approaches were conceived to draw distinctions between traditional approaches and new approaches that, to proponents, have significant potential to improve effectiveness. Some current approaches have served well for a considerable time and have become enshrined as dogma rather than doctrine. At the risk of over-simplification, an effects-based approach is about maintaining a laser-like focus on the "why" of a mission rather than a given approach or means to that end. it is a reminder that although you may have a hammer, all problems are not nails. it is a wake-up call to adequately consider and understand all of the sources of power and influence that can be applied. it is a reminder that we operate in a world that requires constructive interdependence between organizations and agencies. Effects-based approaches are also inevitably about orchestration, about developing synergies that result in effects greater than those that are additive. it is this aspect of effects-based approaches that makes them a natural partner with network-centric approaches.

Our world is a myriad of ever-changing, interdependent variables whose courses we can never entirely predict. The strength of an effects-based approach to operations is that it squarely addresses these complexities by concentrating on their most nonlinear aspects: humans, their institutions, and their actions. indeed, the entire effects-based approach can be characterized by four things: a focus on the human dimension of competition and conflict; the consideration of a full spectrum of actions whether in peace, crisis, or hostilities; a multi-faceted, whole-of-nation concept of power; and the recognition of the complex interconnected nature of the actors and challenges involved. The human dimension arises because all effects-based approaches are ultimately about shaping human perceptions and behavior, and because they depend heavily on human beings to make the complex estimates and decisions involved. The focus on an entire spectrum of actions means thinking holistically across a peace-crisis-hostilities spectrum. Because the focus is on what observers perceive rather than on what we do and because any action is but one part of an observed whole, all operations are necessarily whole-of-nation or whole-of-coalition. Finally, any effects-based approach must proceed from the recognition that all actions and the reactions they provoke are inextricably linked in a system of ever-changing and adapting human systems whose complexity shapes both the nature of the problem and the task of assessing, planning, and executing any operation.

Executive Summary * Introduction * Chapter 1 * It's A Complex World * Chapter 2 * Complexity: The Promise And The Problems * Chapter 3 * Dealing With Complexity * Chapter 4 * Complexity In Effects-Based Operations * Chapter 5 * So, Where's The Cookbook? * Chapter 6 * Seizing A Decisive Advantage: Networking And Effects-Based Approaches To Operations * Chapter 7 * Options, Awareness, And Agility * Chapter 8 * Conclusion: A Network-Enabled But Effects-Based Approach To Operations * About Edward A. Smith * Bibliography